Summit Air Services, HVAC acquisition
IllustrativeKeel Street Capital, Q2 2026 letter, PDF
Revenue grew 18% year over year, we closed 2 add-on acquisitions and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 120 bps.
In private markets, nobody holds sponsors and operators to what they promised to their investors
Argus locks each sponsor's projections on the day of the offering and shows every later result against them, against comparable deals and against the market.
Northline Comfort, HVAC acquisition
Quarterly distributions
Locked Feb 12, 2024
Sponsor's reason
Two add-on acquisitions closed 5 months late, and a warm summer cut service calls.
EBITDA against the sponsor's projection: 82%
Median of 14 comparable deals: 97%
Each quarter, numbers pass from operator to sponsor to investor, and nobody along the way compares them with what was promised
In this illustrative deal, the sponsor projected $295K in distributions for Q2 2026. The operator, the sponsor and the investor each handle the Q2 numbers, and none of them checks the result against that projection.
1. Operator
The company or property the money bought
Illustrative
Monthly report
Revenue$4.2M
Adj. EBITDA$610K
Backlognew this month
Churndropped from report
Compared with the $295K projection?No
What gets lost: The operator reports the metrics it chooses, and the list changes from month to month.
2. Sponsor
The firm that raised the money
Illustrative
Inbox
Northline ComfortXLSX
Summit Air ServicesPDF
Cedar Row ApartmentsPDF
Bayline LogisticsXLSX
Draft letter to investors
We remain confident in the business plan.
Compared with the $295K projection?No
What gets lost: The sponsor can't track every operator closely, and writes a letter that rarely compares results with the offering projection.
3. Investor
The person or fund that put up the money
Illustrative
Keel Street investor portal
Session expired. Log in again.
Harbor & Pine investor portal
Incorrect password.
My holdings.xlsx
| Deal | IRR |
|---|---|
| Northline | 14% |
| Summit Air | #REF! |
Compared with the $295K projection?No
What gets lost: The investor deciphers PDFs from several portals and checks them against a personal spreadsheet. And then good luck figuring out what changed and why.
When a public company misses its guidance, analysts ask why on the earnings call, and when a sponsor misses its projection, nobody asks
Public company
The promise
Guidance
Management gives revenue and earnings guidance for the quarter and the year.
The report
10-Q every quarter
Results follow the same accounting rules and SEC format as every other company.
The comparison
Same day
Analysts compare results with guidance and with peers on the earnings call.
The consequence
Same day
The stock price moves, and management answers for the miss.
Private deal or fund
The promise
Projection
The sponsor projects cash flows and returns in the offering memorandum.
The report
Its own format
The sponsor reports the metrics it chooses, in its own layout, on its own schedule.
The comparison
Nobody
Nobody compares results with the projection, with comparable deals or with the market.
The consequence
No consequence
The sponsor raises the next deal, often from the same investors.
Investors hold $20.3 trillion in private markets with no common reporting standard, so sponsors are never held to what they promised or said.
Source: PitchBook, private markets assets at the end of 2025.
Argus locks each projection on the offering date and shows every later result against it, against comparable deals and against the market
- On the day of the offering
Argus locks the projections
Argus records the sponsor's projected distributions, earnings, leverage and exit on the offering date. The sponsor can explain a change later, but can't edit the original.
Illustrative
LockedProjections locked on the offering date. Measure Projected Distributions $1.0M a year EBITDA in 2026 $7.4M Debt/EBITDA 3.5x Exit 2.1x - Every quarter
Sponsors report every update in one standard form
Every deal reports the same measures against its locked projection, with the sponsor's reason for every change.
IllustrativeProjections locked on the offering date compared with current results. Every current result is below its projection. Measure Projected Now Distributions $1.0M a year $0.6M EBITDA in 2026 $7.4M $6.1M Debt/EBITDA 3.5x 4.6x Exit 2.1x 1.7x - Performance in context
Investors see each result against the projection, comparable deals and the market
A miss when every comparable deal also missed means something different from a miss when peers hit their numbers.
IllustrativeEBITDA against the sponsor's projection: 82%
Median of 14 comparable deals: 97%
Standardization makes deals comparable and analyzable, and it increases transparency
Northline Comfort, HVAC acquisition
IllustrativeHarbor & Pine, Q2 2026 email
A strong first half despite weather headwinds. We are reinvesting cash flow into growth and remain on track with our business plan.
- Different metrics
- No comparison with the projection
- No context
Illustrative
| Measure | Summit Air | Northline Comfort |
|---|---|---|
| Distributions paid to date, as a % of the original projection | 96% | 58% |
| EBITDA in 2026, as a % of the original projection | 104% | 82% |
| Debt/EBITDA, projected for 2026 and actual | 3.5x → 3.3x | 3.5x → 4.6x |
| Against 14 comparable deals | Top quartile | Bottom quartile |
| Projection changes with a reason investors can read | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Illustrative deals, sponsors and figures.
Every quarter adds to a track record for each sponsor that the sponsor doesn't write and can't edit
Distributions paid as a % of each deal's original projection
Business acquisitions closed 2021 to 2024, one dot per deal. Illustrative.
Sponsor A, 6 deals
Sponsor B, 4 deals
Sponsor C, 3 deals
Sponsor D, 5 deals
Sponsor E, 2 deals
Today every track record in a pitch deck is written by the sponsor. On Argus, each projection is locked at the offering and every result is recorded against it, so investors can check a sponsor's past deals before they commit to the next one.
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